Welcome back to America’s longest running NBA DFS content gimmick, Tiers Tuesday! Got beat up a little last night, despite having pieces of the Sixers/Honets OT thriller all over my lineups - this was an odd one honestly. No Sixers did much beyond Embiid. Plenty of good games, but no big time fantasy performances. Same thing happened for Charlotte. Oubre had a huge game, and everyone else was simply OK. We try again tonight. Lets jump in.
I know you’re here for charts, but before we look at those I want to share some insights I mined this morning on the Lakers and Nets, who are filling up Tiers one and two.
First the more straightforward Nets situation - Kevin Durant (T1) and James Harden (T2) have played in 21 games together this season. They have not both scored 50 DK points in a game yet. And while BK’s 111 implied total is a point and a half above their season average, I’m going to be avoiding playing both together in this format (or any really) as the quality of players available in T1 and T2 makes 50 DK points a bare minimum for consideration.
I also looked at the Lakers players - specifically Russell Westbrook (T1), Anthony Davis (T1), and LeBron James (T2) and found some interesting tidbits.
Russell Westbrook averages 44 DK points per game this season overall.
With LeBron James out - Russ’ average jumps to 48 DK points
With LeBron James in - Russ averages just 40 DK points
AD is a different story however - He averages a point and a half more per game with LeBron in.
With all three in, like we expect tonight, and playing full minutes, their actual high scores are:
Russell Westbrook - 61.5 DK
LeBron James - 59.75 DK (2X)
Anthony Davis - 56.25 DK (on opening night, with Russ scoring only 18, next highest is 52.75)
All this is to say despite his seriously lagging behind his tiermates in projection this evening, Russell Westbrook is still viable in tournaments. Just not with LeBron James. AD is compatible with both guys, but I would temper myself. When all three play, they average just 135 DK points per game. If one gets 60, you’ll need something special for someone else to win their tier.
Tier 1
I talked about three of these guys at length already, but can’t forget about Luka Doncic - he has the highest practical and theoretical ceiling tonight as the only super-dooper-star flying solo. Brooklyn is not the dumpster fire on D they were last year, but they are still not GSW and Luka will have access to plenty of shots. We can’t stack him with KD of course, but we can add Harden, or some of the lesser lights down the tier.
Tier 2
Julius Randle is probably a bit out of his depth here - he has about a 10% chance to be top scorer, but he does have a path to success tonight against an average-is Spurs defense.
I like Dejounte Murray much more on the other side of the Randle. The Knicks are a poor defensive team, and it starts with their guards, who range somewhere between incapable and disinterested. There are some HUGE names in this tier, and I’m hoping they win out the ownership race.
Tatum is much the same as Murray, the Lakers are very average defensively, having swapped out “3 and D” wings for “3 and TBD” wings over the past two seasons, and adding Russell Westbrook, a player seemingly physically incapable of consistent quality defense. Jaylen Brown is also questionable for now - if he is out he becomes a much stronger play but much higher owned. Best case, Jaylen is ruled out after our 6:30 central lock, and we aren’t too heavy on Harden so we can get overweight on Tatum.
Tier 3
First off Jaylen Brown is excluded here as he is somewhere between questionable and doubtful. As for the guys who are going to play, Kristaps Porzingis is head and shoulders above the others, both literally, and figuratively for fantasy. He is the unquestioned number two for Dallas, and doesn’t need loads of real life points to get a big number.
On the flip side of the Zinger is Burks, the most point dependent player of the tier, and suddenly playing a starring role for the Knicks. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White do not skimp on defense. If this ownership reflects reality, I won’t be terribly interested. If Jaylen Brown is confirmed out, pumping up Al and Dennis’ ownership, I’ll definitely grab some shares.
Tier 4
THT was the best player in the league from November 15-17, but since then, he has receded quite a bit behind the bright light of the Lakers stars. It seems impossible he could win this tier, because it bout is.
Poeltl is best, just don’t pair him with Julius Randle, and Robert Williams is probably not going to play many minutes tonight, or AD will feast. That’s actually an interesting stack idea. Pairing AD with the guy he is going to murder.
Tier 5
I would not pair any of the Knicks guys, Barrett, Rose, and Quickley from this tier, nor Kemba and Fournier in the T6. And really you should not play Kemba at all - he doesn’t play anymore.
I think you can play THJ or Brunson with Luka or Porzingis - but if you do, make sure some Brooklyn guys get in those lineups hoping for an OT or two.
I am an admitted LaMarcus Aldridge backtracker - He’s playing lots of minutes, and if you are playing tiers cash, he is the only option.
Tier 6
This is really just a correlation tier for me. Wrap up your game stacks with some hope that the game you pick goes to three OTs. Monk and Melo however do not belong with THT, or really more than one other Laker. These guys only shoot.
I’d also avoid Kleber or Finney-Smith pairing with Porzingis. But otherwise, have a ball!
Ok that’s all for today! I won’t be doing a thread on here today, but will update the charts in here as news breaks later on. Check out the website version of the newsletter here:
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