Good afternoon! Last night was kind of a bummer: Joel Embiid was a post lock scratch, and sunk my DK night before it got started. It was doubly disappointing because the Sixers were in town, and we were sitting in the fifth row at the Forum. He was announced and everything - and just before tip I got a notification he was scratched.
The Sixers didn’t take the news well either, turning the ball over about 88 times in the process of getting whipped 126-91. We still had some fun at the game though. Kirbi (wife) was pretty embarrassed every time I yelled at the ref or shouted encouragement to the Sixers. Thats about all it takes for me to have a good time. And it was nice to be back in the Forum after two years.
Before we jump in, I made a change to the charts that, obviously, I think will be more useful to us. Instead of displaying the players projected floor, mean, ceiling, and pOwn, I’ll be displaying the likelihood of each player hitting specific numbers. Those specific numbers are now the floor, mean, and ceiling of the projected winning score for each tier. I base these tier score projections on two things:
I dug up the last six three-game Tiers slates and found the average winning score each tier.
I then used all the scores for each tier to calculate (google sheets function) the standard deviation, which is then subtracted from the mean - floor - and added to the mean - ceiling.
This isn’t exactly a rigorous method, but the difference between this, and maximal rigor is *likely* very very small. I’ll save my own time.
I also have one more piece of data I’ll be adding starting Thursday - I just couldn’t quite get that process nailed down by deadline.
Tier 1
The mean winning score for T1 in three game slates this season has been 58. Looking above we see KD and Harden are both north of 20% to get there, with Steph a shade below. On the main slate, all three guys are priced within $400, but Durant and Harden have pOwns 2.5X higher. I think that could be what happens here, but its not really out of whack, so there’s no leverage opportunity. Unless you think Steph goes nuts breaking the all time three point record tonight in MSG (he needs 3, so he is starting at 10.5 DK points).
Tier 2
Unfortunately, the price gaps on the main slate make those pOwn figures less useful for our purposes, so we’ll have to eye-ball it a little. I don’t think there will be a huge advantage to gain here playing off ownership. I would focus more on correlating these guys. FVV or Siakam, paired with Harden/Durant etc. I’d still play the good players here, which means overweight on Randle and Lillard, the top two projected guys here.
Tier 3
This tier is a little light after some injuries and I think it helped create some real opportunities. The salaries and positions on the main are very useful for us - Jusuf Nurkic will sub 10% owned in this tier, with the other three all coming in 30-35% or so. Draymond is all but a no play for me at this projection. The handful of times he wins this tier is not worth holding hands with 30% of the field.
I wouldn’t get crazy with Nurkic though - while he does have a chance to win the slate, he doesn’t play a ton of minutes, so he has to be VERY efficient, and the other guys have to be VERY inefficient.
Tier 4
This is where these charts really help. Andrew Wiggins will have the lowest pOwn of the group, but whatever it is, it’s too much. He has a low single digit chance of winning this tier. And when he does its, its possible you can win with another guy who is very close.
As far as which guys can get us positive leverage, Jordan Poole and Gary Trent Jr. both look underowned on the main, and I would expect they don’t come close to getting enough credit on tiers. Alec Burks has been on a great run, but the matchup here is tough, and the Knicks implied total is 2.5 points below their season average. Powell has a big pOwn on the main, despite offering no discount, and only SF eligibility, with only 2 points of projection more than Poole or GTJ…
Tier 5
Ok some things stand out. Mikal Bridges is a non-play for me. The probability he wins this tier tonight is less than 1%. Patty Mills is slightly better, but I would only play him as part of a game stack.
Chris Boucher needs a real paragraph. I want to make clear how volatile a play this guy is. He literally has the lowest floor, and highest ceiling. You need to be prepared to see some snowflakes.
If you don’t have the stomach for it, Derrick Rose and Anfernee Simons offer a little more stability. Rose has the floor. With Kemba going out of the rotation, Rose has gotten a hold of the bench of the usage. Simons benefits in much the same way. Powell went the starting lineup in place of McCollum, leaving Simons to have alone time with the ball. He also played in 11 4th quarter minutes of a close game just two days ago, so there is upside.
Tier 6
Fournier is out.
Quickley is the best projected of the bunch, but like all T6 players, is incredibly volatile. He also has six decent opponents here, but I particularly like Larry Nance Jr., and Bruce Brown. They have the minutes, and they contribute in all categories, and look like they will be underowned.
One player I don’t particularly like is Cameron Payne - his minutes expectation is too low - no time to put a big number, and any hit to his efficiency means we get a 12.
Ok that’s all I have for today! Don’t forget to subscribe and share!