Good morning! Hopefully everyone enjoyed the OLP as much as I did (I understand if not). I’m tempted to try and run it for a whole big slate, but I’m not really at that technical level just yet, so you’re spared seeing 112 charts today.
Tonight should seem familiar from an injuries/illness/precaution standpoint, only this version will provide us some new names and faces, though they aren’t really new, with some guys being current/former MVP candidates, and another a recent NCAA All-American and Final Four hero.
As per usual, the players you see below take all the absences into account with the best available information, so I aint Finta go through the whole list of injuries, or worry about potential absences.
I am going to tweak the format as you’ll see below, with favorites first, then a separate section for pivots.
Finally, Nikola Jokic is not expensive enough on FanDuel basically ever, and is a great play tonight and every night. So play him whether I mention him or not.
FanDuel Favorites
Davion Mitchell, PG, $4700, pOwn: 51%, Target Rate: 53%, Value Rate: 72% - Assuming the Kings have enough guys to go tonight against the Grizzer-Grinders, Davion is going to be front and center from a ball-handling standpoint. He has not been what you might call “efficient” yet in the NBA, but the volume will be huge. Side note: his D-Rating this year is 116, which is bad even for Team Shambles.
LeBron James, SF/PF, $11000, pOwn: 23%, Target Rate: 22%, Value Rate: 60% - This play is more about his immense floor with Russell Westbrook not playing. The shot creation situation for LAL is so dire, they are signing Isaiah Thomas, who’s been in the NBA wilderness for the past five years since a hip injury that derailed his career. LeBron will be dribbling the ball for about 36 minutes tonight.
Jarred Vanderbilt, PF, $5600, pOwn: 19%, Target Rate: 29%, Value Rate: 45% - This value rate is a little low, yes, but I’m interested in the upside associated with the risk here. Its about the minutes. He gets lots of em, and the Lakers give up lots of everything, providing the former Kentucky man plenty of opportunities to use those minutes for our good.
Pivots
Gabe Vincent, PG, $4900, pOwn: 4%, Target Rate: 21%, Value Rate: 38% - He is no longer on the latest team to suffer extreme player shortages, but his opportunity is still intact. Yes he is shooting dependent, but Orlando stinks, and he could wander into a handful of steals tonight against the Magic’s 8th stringers.
Demarcus Cousins, C, $3700, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 19%, Value Rate: 60% - If you want to get off Jokic and get expensive elsewhere, Boogie is your man. He missed Wednesday’s game for personal reasons, and is expected to rejoin the VERY shorthanded Bucks tonight against one of his old teams, the Pels. He basically has to play heavy minutes tonight, and while I expect his ownership to shoot up once the Bucks start announcing their intentions, he is center eligible only which should keep his ownership capped.
DraftKings Favorites
Davion Mitchell, PG/SG, $3600, pOwn: 55%, Target Rate: 59%, Value Rate: 93% - Yea these rates are nuts, but they make total sense, and really that’s all there is to it. Small field and cash, this guy has to be in your lineups.
Khris Middleton, SF, $6700, pOwn: 43%, Target Rate: 41%, Value Rate: 81% - He is questionable tonight, but expected to play (sometimes referred to as probable). This Bucks situation is worth being all over of course, and a guy who can get shots and play mid-30 minutes at this price against the Pellies is a big fat yes.
Dewayne Dedmon, C, $5000, pOwn: 13%, Target Rate: 34%, Value Rate: 64% - This is similar to Vincent. His opportunity is still there, he’s just been knocked off the front page. This is essentially half favorite, half pivot. We know he can put up big stat lines, and against Orlando’s mash crew, he could really rack em up.
Pivot
Jarred Vanderbilt, PF/C, $5300, pOwn: 7%, Target Rate: 27%, Value Rate: 54% - Same deal here, he is going to play heavy minutes in a very friendly environment, at single digit ownership. You know how you look at the winners lineups at the end of the night and think: “How the hell…” well, this is how the hell.
Ok gang that’s all for today. No thread just yet, but anything major will be on twitter @SNGSports. And don’t forget to subscribe and share: