NBA DFS State of the Slate 12/1/2021
NBA DFS State of the Slate 12/1/2021
Nine game Wednesday slate to start the last month of the year
Last night ain’t go so well - We had some real bombs up and down the lineup. The Lakers/Kings game was a blowout, but its unclear who scored all the points because Russ did not. Over in the Phoenix/Golden State showdown, Steph went stone cold, and Devin Booker got hurt, leading to an excellent opportunity for Chris Paul, which the Point God did not waste, clocking in at 50 DK points on the back of five steals and a double double.
If you tailed our prop bets, you should have come out slightly ahead, so at least there’s that… I promise to post less unders from now on. They aren’t fun and we went 1/4 on them so forget ‘em.
Looking at today, we have a fairly straightforward nine game slate for now. No new major injuries creating any big value, and the result is pretty flat pOwn for the time being. We do have a long list of questionables, but for the moment we will assume they play, and adjust as we learn more news. As such the resulting favorites you’ll see will be focused on ceiling/value. On to the favorites!
FanDuel Favorites
Paul George, $8600, pOwn: 18%, Target Rate: 13%, Value Rate: 42% - At first glance PG13 is underwater from a Target/pOwn perspective but this play is about getting premium ceiling at a sub premium price. The Clips face off against Team Shambles tonight, and have the 2nd best implied total on the slate tonight. This gives the former Fresno State man a strong floor/ceiling combination. And G/F eligibility doesn’t hurt either.
Caris LeVert, $5400, pOwn: 21%, Target Rate: 21%, Value Rate: 46% - I know you are sick of reading about him. I’m sick of writing about him. But with each passing poor game, his price falls with it, but the reality of who he is as a player doesn’t change. He is getting minutes, and getting shots. I want to be on him when those shots start falling.
Bobby Portis, $6500, pOwn: 13%, Target Rate: 14%, Value Rate: 38% - The Milwaukee Bucks have an outrageous implied total of 120 tonight, which is 11 points above their average. Honestly everyone from the Bucks could be here, but Portis has positional eligibility and price tag we like. If your build ends up elsewhere, feel free to mix and match Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, or Grayson Allen if they fit better. Obviously Giannis should smash tonight as well, but the likelihood of him playing a full complement of the high-intensity minutes needed at $11200 is too low for me personally.
BONUS: Nikola Jokic, $11000, pOwn: 10%, Target Rate: 29%, Value Rate: 66% - Jokic is really expensive, and as of right now, we may struggle to find the value/leverage combo needed to fit him in a lineup that can win a tournament. BUT - As things shake out, I hope we get some value to work with, because Jokic has a HUGE ceiling against Orlando tonight. Denver doesn’t have the horses to blow anyone out right now, so we should see as much Jokic as possible, against a horrible team, that gets blocked six times a game.
DraftKings Favorites
Reggie Jackson, $6000, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 18%, Value Rate: 56% - Over here on DK, its Reggie Jackson we turn to pick up the smash points against Team Shambles. Not that PG is any less well projected here, its just that his price is a little high at $10200. Jackson has settled in nicely as the official number two option for the Clips, and will get a chance to feast this evening against a Kings team conceding a bonkers 121 per game since Alvin Gentry took over.
Caris LeVert, $5400, pOwn: 13%, Target Rate: 21%, Value Rate: 62% - Yea I know, but he is a great tournament play tonight!
Josh Hart, $5500, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 17%, Value Rate: 56% - We are a little light on forward options tonight, so in steps the former Villanova man who in a vacuum isn’t a great play, but within the context of the slate, offers a decent value opportunity. Now lets just hope Jonas Valanciunas passes him the ball in between raining threes on everybody.
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Good Luck Tonight!