Hello from sunny Atlanta! The Big Peach! Kirbi (wife) and I are in town visiting our dear friend Maddy, and to support the Sixers against the Hawks tonight. Seeing the Sixers or the Phillies has been a must for all of our vacations, since otherwise I’d probably never go. Sadly COVID has wiped that tradition out for the past nearly two years, but tonight we are back baby! And since Clint Capela is from Switzerland and went to high school in Paris, I am certain I can reuse some of my old Tony Parker insults (Tu crains Tony).
Before we jump into tonight’s slate though, I have to acknowledge the Grizzer Grinders grinding the Thunder into oblivion last night - 152-79 - a league record margin of victory. Of course OKC were without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey, two of their three NBA players, but it still took doing and the Grizz did it. An added bonus: The Grizzlies no longer have the seasons worst defeat, having set that mark just two weeks ago losing to Minnesota by 43. Strange season for the Beale Street ballers.
Now as we look forward to this evening, there is once again a long list of questionables: Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, Kevin Porter Jr, Tobias Harris, and Josh Hart are all high-to-medium usage/minutes guys who could sit out this evening. Too many scenarios to run through here - I guess this is a good time to point out that a daily thread won’t be coming this afternoon, sorry, we are visiting the Coke museum so I can send lots of pics to my friend Brion - but keep this in mind as you look at the slate and start building lineups. If player X is out, what fresh value can pop? What less obvious player could benefit? With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both already ruled out for the Heat, expect the guys that did well Wednesday to be very owned tonight, despite price tag jumps.
There is also a full complement of Superstars to choose from tonight, with Steph Curry and Joel Embiid both currently checking in under 2% pOwn. Very interested in where these numbers end up, as neither is in a particularly smashy spot, both obviously are capable of scoring 70 fantasy points regardless of matchup.
Ok favorites.
FanDuel Favorites
LaMarcus Aldridge, $5700, pOwn: 22%, Target Rate: 29%, Value Rate: 54% - I am ready to be hurt again! The last time Aldridge found his name in this newsletter, he was randomly removed from the rotation so I’ve been hesitant - but Blake Griffin appears to be permanently out of the rotation, making Aldridge’s minute floor look safe enough for tournaments. Aldridge isn’t exciting, he won’t score 30 points, but he will get 30 minutes to run around against the T-Wolves tonight, for a team with a 115 implied total. Sometimes that’s all that matters.
Caris LeVert, $4800, pOwn: 22%, Target Rate: 27%, Value Rate: 53% - Speaking of hurt again, LeVert has made a fool of me many times this season, but the shots have to fall. At $4800, and 30 minutes a game, I will keep touting him. He can’t shoot 25% every night right? RIGHT!?!?
Mo Bamba, $7000, pOwn: 5%, Target Rate: 15%, Value Rate: 33% - I obviously love this guy, and I obviously love playing guys who are playing the Thunder. This is two of my great loves colliding, and I simply can’t resist. That target rate feels really low to me, but his price isn’t exactly low so… Man he is going to have like 7 blocks and 5 steals just play him against the Rockets.
DraftKings Favorites
Dwayne Dedmon, $4800, pOwn: 17%, Target Rate: 42%, Value Rate: 70% - That pOwn should come way up throughout the afternoon, but even at twice that number I really like Dedmon against the Pacers tonight. He has been a fantasy superstar in the past, specifically in recent seasons spent with San Antonio and Atlanta, and while the NBA community at large may not value his contributions, I know the fantasy community does. He doesn’t have a wonderful matchup tonight with Domantas Sabonis, but no Bam or Jimmy Buckets, or really any competition from his teammates for rebounds just means he needs to cobble together five cutbacks to hit the double double bonus.
Mo Bamba, $6400, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 20%, Value Rate: 55% - Love love love love love. Get ‘em Mo! Also, If you are in a big multi-entry tournament, combining Dedmon and Bamba should lock in significant leverage on the field.
Jalen Brunson, $4800, pOwn: 10%, Target Rate: 26%, Value Rate: 60% - As part of the rules, you will be required to select a SG. There is one one player with SG eligibility above Brunson by my “Smash Points” metric, and that’s Tyler Herro, who will be very very owned tonight at $7500. Brunson’s price has crashed since his Luka-less peak last week, and a couple injury shortened duds have probably caused a bit of an over-correction. Lets take advantage of Brunson’s opportunity to feast on a very weak Pellies team.
Ok that’s all I have for today. The Sixers game is on ESPN tonight, so check me out hurling french insult down on Clint Capela! Also be sure to check out the subscribe button below.