Welcome back everyone - hope you all had a great holiday weekend. The Cowboys lost and Ole Miss won is all I can remember. Thats really all I need in life. The NBA has a nine gamer on offer this evening. We’ll take a look at the slate, starting with two star players with questionable designations as of now in a second. I need to note first that there has been another tweak in the Target Rate metric - I added a floor (30 points) and a ceiling (60 points) that should balance out the cheap guy/expensive guy ratio. Ok that’s all.
First up is the Balkan Basher Nikola Jokic who continues to nurse a wrist injury (perhaps too much bashing). He hasn’t played in a week, so it really is just a matter of keeping an eye out for news. Aaron Gordon and Will Barton have been the big beneficiaries of course, but their prices are up, so even if Jokic is out, they are tourney only guys.
Down in Miami Jimmy Buckets is also questionable tonight against Nikola’s Nuggets with a tailbone tweak. Like with Denver, there have been lots of high end absences of late for the Heat, so all of the potential beneficiaries are already priced up. If Butler sits - Herro (himself questionable with “body soreness”), Bam, and Lowry will all become tourney only plays. If Jimmy and Herro both sit - then we have something but lets cross that bridge if its built.
FanDuel Favorites
Darius Bazley, $4900, pOwn: 25%, Target Rate: 25%, Value Rate: 45% - Bazley’s minutes have perked up a bit the past couple of weeks, just in time for the Thunder to face the hapless Rockets. Bazley’s success is not contingent on volume in minutes, but rather volume of opportunities within those minutes. Thats what the Rockets provide. Opponent efficiency in ALL categories.
Dejounte Murray, $10000, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 13%, Value Rate: 24% - As of now, Murray offers an excellent tournament leverage opportunity on FD. Dejounte Murray is awesome - he has scored 50 or more 8 out of 18 games this season. His price keeps rising, but its not quite high enough. At this pOwn he belongs high on your priority list tonight.
Daniel Gafford, $5300, pOwn: 7%, Target Rate: 17%, Value Rate: 35% - This is not a typical smash play that I would love at center, but his foil this evening, the Spurs Jakob Poeltl is expected to garner three times the ownership, and cost $500 more. His projection is quite similar, and Gafford’s success could very well come via Poeltl’s failure.
DraftKings Favorites
Luka Doncic, $11300, pOwn: 15%, Target Rate: 24%, Value Rate: 58% - For a slate with nine games, we don’t have too many monster totals. Luka’s Mavs are implied for 109 which is above average tonight, and that’s really the key number for a player like Luka. Yes we know about the triple doubles, and late game heroics, but for fantasy purposes, Luka’s success is tied directly to how many points his team scores because he is either scoring the points or creating them. Paul George is in a similar spot, but at higher ownership, and with a lower ceiling.
Jae’Sean Tate, $4800, pOwn: 26%, Target Rate: 29%, Value Rate: 68% - Truth be told, just about the whole OKC/HOU game tonight is a strong play, but the field is alert after the infinity+1 to infinity victory the Rockets mustered against the Hornets, their second straight after losing the previous FIFTEEN by about infinity. This game will be juicy, we just need to make sure we find the guys who can score well, and help us win our contest. Tate does that at this pOwn. We’ll have to see how the rest of the afternoon shakes out.
Caris Lavert, $5300, pOwn: 24%, Target Rate: 24%, Value Rate: 61% - Lavert will appear on here every time the Pacers get a good matchup. Minnesota fits that bill as they concede at least above average rates of all fantasy stats. The former Nets star is an up and down kind of player, especially on this Pacers team replete good not great shot creators. But his chances of success spike when the other team just isn’t very good.
Ok that’s all for today. Make sure you check in on our daily thread for updates throughout the afternoon. Or if you are feeling really frisky, leave a question, and I’ll answer it! Find this magical place by clicking the button below:
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Good Luck Tonight!