Hope everyone had fun playing tiers last night. For some reason, LaMarcus Aldridge didn’t play a minute in the first half, and only got one turn through in the second as Steve Nash threw in the towel early. Great stuff. We’ll try again tonight.
And tonight we have a lot happening, as you would expect on an 11 game slate. First we have another injury watch for Miami. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both questionable. Damian Lillard is also questionable again despite playing on Monday with the same designation. Cleveland are now down Jarret Allen and Evan Mobley upfront. And Khris Middleton looks like he’ll be returning tonight, though unlikely at a full minutes complement. I’ll cover these all on the daily thread this afternoon, hopefully with more information.
Talen Horton-Tucker Section
THT was phenomenal in LA’s last game, scoring 42 and 40 on DK and FD respectively in a whopping 37 minutes! The bad news is that he played all 12 4thQ minutes with Frank Vogel throwing in the towel in a blow-out loss to the Bulls, scoring 16 points in quarter. He led the team in minutes and FGA for the game. AD played zero minutes in this same 4th quarter. Russ played just five. With pOwn around 40% on both sites tonight, this is a pass for me…
FanDuel Favorites
Jalen Brunson, $6500, pOwn: 37%, Target Rate: 33%, Value Rate: 58% Tim Hardaway Jr., $5200, pOwn: 40%, Target Rate: 32%, Value Rate: 57%
Luka Doncic has been ruled out for Dallas’ game tonight against Phoenix and Jalen and Tim are the two most likely to benefit from his absence. I included both because they grade out so similarly, but I also want to look at what playing both guys would look like. Jalen Brunson is the superior player from a point per minute basis this season, but THJ has played 82% of his minutes with Luka Doncic, compared to just 60% for Brunson, so we would expect THJ to score fewer points. He is just operating as a spot up shooter in these scenarios. We can expect both guys to play mid-30s in minutes, and spend all of their time as either the primary or secondary ball handler. My hope is the rest of the field will try to keep them separate, thinking they both can’t succeed. And that’s likely correct, but I think the slice of outcomes where these guys both score enough for me to win is larger than the slice of lineups where both appear. Here’s hoping! One last note - The Mavs pace without Luka picks up quite a bit. We should expect to see a few more possessions tonight than usual from them.
Isaac Okoro, $3600, pOwn: 18%, Target Rate: 37%, Value Rate: 60% - Okoro is one of a handful of Cavs players looking at added minutes in the face of all the injuries the team is dealing with. Isaac just happens to be the most likely to succeed. There is nothing particularly appealing about his play, he will just be on the floor for 30 plus minutes tonight in an NBA game with a FD price tag of only $3600. If you prefer his teammates Dean Wade or Cedi Osman, I would not argue.
Isaiah Stewart, $5100, pOwn: 23%, Target Rate: 26%, Value Rate: 52% - Tonights slate is filled with big name players at the forward spots, and tons of guard/wing value. I expect to see lots of Giannis, AD, Durant, and Tatum, with big projections, but negative leverage. Stewart is the best player, to my mind, to flip this build blueprint on its head, and find more projection elsewhere on the roster.
DraftKings Favorites
Jalen Brunson, $5700, pOwn: 46%, Target Rate: 52%, Value Rate: 81% Tim Hardaway Jr., $5300, pOwn: 32%, Target Rate: 33%, Value Rate: 69%
Jalen is much more appealing on DK relative to THJ, but both are strong plays here as well. You just need to find a place to get spicy if you play Jalen. Lets see if we can find it below.
Tony Bradley, $3300, pOwn: 13%, Target Rate: 47%, Value Rate: 71% Dean Wade, $3200, pOwn: 15%, Target Rate: 46%, Value Rate: 70%
Whoa I think we found some guys! Both guys are filling in for more illustrious teammates, are dirt cheap, have ownership in the teens, and should score their target or better 3X that much.
D’Angelo Russell, $7300, pOwn: 14%, Target Rate: 9%, Value Rate: 55% - This is not the type of play I would usually tout here, but with as much value as we have, we need to start getting some projection in our lineups. D’Angelo helps us do that, without holding hands with too many other players, and also not being an extreme long shot. Christian Wood also fits this bill down in Houston, if you need a big guy to score some points.
Thats all I have for now. Be sure to check out our daily thread for updates throughout the afternoon. you find it by clicking this:
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