Welcome back! First - sorry for missing out on Thursday and Friday - circumstance conspired against us unfortunately. I am happy you are still here reading though. Your belief in me means the world (ha). Before we jump back in, I want to restate, and perhaps really redefine the purpose of this newsletter, as it feels like it’s been a bit scatter shot slate to slate. So - going forward the focus of these articles will be where my strengths lie - how to succeed in small field single entry (SE) NBA DFS contests. There may still be the occasional mention of cash games and large field tournaments, but only in support of our central goal: Winning small field contests.
Another consideration I want to add is SE specific pivots for each favorite since many of the players we are going to be considering under our small field mandate will be highly owned. These pivots won’t wild darts, just alternatives we can use to get some leverage on the field.
Since we last spoke, basically the whole NBA has either injured themselves or contracted COVID. The NBA has even announced the postponement of the next two Chicago Bulls games. Rather than run through an injury list as long as Rudy Gobert’s arm, just understand that ALL of the injuries we know about are accounted for in the projections I’m using. Lets get it!
FanDuel Favorites
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG, $6300, pOwn: 64%, Target Rate: 44%, Value Rate: 65% - In a large field tournament, this is a leverage spot for sure since we have 20 to 150 chances to hit on an alternative, but if we are looking at SE, his target probability outstrips everyone by so much, efficient ownership will be like 90%. Thats a crazy way to say Luka Doncic is out this evening - expect the diminutive former Villanova guard to log 35 plus minutes, almost all of which as the lead ball handler against the Hornets.
As for a pivot - I don’t want to give anyone any bad ideas. In order to get different here, try adding some teammates or opponents from this same fertile ground. Two strong options who can offer some leverage:
Cody Martin, PG/SG, $5200, pOwn: 4%, Target Rate: 15%, Value Rate: 32%
Dorian Finney-Smith, SF/PF, $5700, pOwn: 3%, Target Rate: 7%, Value Rate: 24%
Nikola Jokic, C, $11400, pOwn: 18%, Target Rate: 30%, Value Rate: 64% - Center on FanDuel is an opportunity position. You can only play one, and if you get the guy with the highest score, you can set yourself ahead of a huge chunk of the field. Jokic isn’t unowned, but he is less owned than Joel Embiid who has a pOwn of 21%. Embiid is cheaper, but if Jokic can best JoJo by 10 or more fantasy points, we should rocket up the leaderboard.
On the flip side, maybe the big boys miss out, and the chalky value guy gets 40 FD?
Chris Boucher, PF/C, $5000, pOwn: 27%, Target Rate: 31%, Value Rate: 48%
We’ve seen him have big games as a fill in before, and tonight against Sacramento he gets a great matchup to do it. This only really works if you have the gall to actually play him as Center though.
Armoni Brooks, SG, $4900, pOwn: 26%, Target Rate: 32%, Value Rate: 49% - The value rate is a touch low, but he is competing with retreads Garrison Mathews and DJ Augustin for opportunities, and has come out ahead two games in a row. We can safely expect 30 minutes for the former Houston Cougar tonight and with a decent usage rate too.
If you want to pivot here, that other 68% of the time he doesn’t hit his target score is probably because one or two of his teammates had a big game. If we are looking for real leverage take a look at Garrison Mathews - he has an 18% Target Rate, but a pOwn of just 6%.
DraftKings Favorites
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG, $5800, pOwn: 57%, Target Rate: 56%, Value Rate: 82% - All of the same things apply here. In a single entry contests, he is essentially a must play.
As for pivots, once again look to stack up his teammates and opponents. Remember, this is only necessary if you simply can’t find another way to differentiate. While we can’t just roll out an optimal, we also don’t have to beat 50K people. Build your lineup based on the contest you are playing in.
Chris Boucher, PF/C, $4300, pOwn: 23%, Target Rate: 45%, Value Rate: 72% - This is much more of a smash play than a pivot play on DK. Boucher has eligibility for 4 slots here, and at this price and ownership doesn’t need to get 50.
If Boucher doesn’t get there, it will be in part because the Kings made shots, depriving him of rebounds and blocks. The King with the best target rate tonight?
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF, $5100, pOwn: 21%, Target Rate: 36%, Value Rate: 73%
Barnes is actually a great play on his own. Despite a recent trend of declining minutes, we only have to look back a few games for his last 30 point outing for the one-time top HS recruit.
Terrance Mann, PG/SF, $4400, pOwn:17%, Target Rate: 37%, Value Rate: 64% - With Paul George out tonight for the Clips, there’s lots of minutes, and shots, up for grabs. Mann is no slouch, and as of now, looks woefully under owned. He also has eligibility for five roster slots, so he will fit in anywhere.
While any other Clipper with even a hint of creativity could work as a pivot, one man stands out for sure:
Marcus Morris Sr, SF/PF, $4600, pOwn: 19%, Target Rate: 32%, Value Rate: 69%
While Morris Sr. may not be able to create for others the way PG-13 does, he certainly won’t hesitate to shoot like Paul George. That doesn’t matter to us. A double-double with a few three pointers is all we’ll need.
That is all I have today! Come back tomorrow for a return to normalcy. Charts, threads, everything.
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