Ok gang we have a really big slate, and Chelsea play at 11:45 CT, so we going to make this quick, I promise. Last night was an odd one for sure - RJ Barrett somehow managed to score 32 real life points - just his third career 30 point game. You know what they say about vision impaired rodents. Anyway, weird things can happen, and its important not to apply to much weight to the event that just happened.
A quick pre-amble for tonight - there are loads of injuries. Collapsed lungs, COVID exposures, personal problems, Jimmy Butler (bruised tailbone) is STILL butt-hurt from when he left Philly, everything. Its damn near impossible to consider all of them. Theres also 13 games, and tons of great options. I’m less concerned with pOwn than usual tonight, simply because A - there will be more injuries announced, including after lock, bet that; and B - there are so many viable lineup combinations, just a couple small leverage plays should be sufficient. Let your opponents take the extra risk.
FanDuel Favorites
Norman Powell, $5200, pOwn: 38%, Target Rate: 26%, Value Rate: 55% - He is currently sporting a lower pOwn than Cody Martin, and while I expect that number to change through the afternoon, the early indications lead me to believe Powell will still be significantly under-owned. I know I said I was less concerned than usual, but not unconcerned. Powell will be first to the trough tonight for Portland, and while his matchup is very tough against GSW, Martin’s is only marginally better against the Sixers. And, frankly, Norman is just a more talented player.
Precious Achiuwa, $4900, pOwn: 22%, Target Rate: 27%, Value Rate: 52% - Toronto faces one of the Association’s premier whipping boys in OKC tonight, and the former Memphis Tigers star is in prime position to rack up some points. His per 36 bloals are down 40% this year, but his minutes have been odd. I think he is more like the guy averaging 2.5 bloals last year, than the one averaging 1.5 this year. 10 points, 5 boards, and 3 bloals is 25 FD points… pretty good base.
Tyrese Maxey, $6300, pOwn: 1%, Target Rate: 9%, Value Rate: 30% - Speaking of soft matchups, the Sixers are facing the Charlotte Hornets tonight, who are currently vying with Portland and the Pellies to be the worst defense in the NBA. And while Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris are the two obvious candidates to smash tonight, its Maxey who should be initiating the offense, and getting extended run against a defense that basically doesn’t exist. The Sixers were dying to limit Embiid’s minutes Monday against this same Charlotte team, but without Maxey, Philly’s “others” struggled to maintain any leads. Doc has shown this year he doesn't mind riding Maxey to big minutes. I like the chances he smashes here.
DraftKings Favorites
Norman Powell, $4800, pOwn: 48%, Target Rate: 38%, Value Rate: 75% - He is looking like catching more ownership here, but still, he is in a very strong position tonight. Cody Martin may have a 48% chance of beating his score tonight, but Powell is the guy with more slate breaking potential.
Cody Martin, $5000, pOwn: 26%, Target Rate: 32%, Value Rate: 65% - Not that Cody is a total NP tonight. LaMelo and Rozier are still out, as are Ish Smith, Jalen McDaniels, and Mason Plumlee - pretty much locking in a decent floor. He will never be a big time scorer, so we will need him to really rack up the other categories. And a couple made threes will help too.
Ayo Dosunmu, $3900, pOwn: 30%, Target Rate: 35%, Value Rate: 74% - The Bulls suddenly find themselves in the middle of an injury crisis, and accordingly, the Bulls second round rookie out of Illinois finds himself in position to get about as many minutes as he could want. He has just 400 NBA minutes under his belt so far, but the per minute numbers aren’t that bad. He also had a decent three year college career, so you would expect him to be ready to contribute a little. His ceiling is too low for me on FD, but on a much tighter DK slate, I’m in.
Ok y’all that’s all I have for today. Be sure to check out the daily thread below:
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