Happy Hump Day Homies! We have an 11 game slate tonight, and injuries and illnesses flying fast and furious. My original instinct was to overreact about the threat to the slate via cancellations or postponement, but I dug into the teams injury reports this morning, and there is really only team worth a red flag - The Milwaukee Bucks.
Obviously the big boy Giannis Antetokounmpo is out, but so are five more of his teammates, and one more is questionable. They still have nine guys who can dress as of now, but be wary of the Mil/Ind game tonight. They start at 8 ET, if you roster any of their guys, be sure you have a plan in place to swap them out.
FanDuel Favorites
Nikola Jokic, C, $11500, pOwn: 21%, Target Rate: 49%, Value Rate: 78% - The projections think Jokic has a 78% chance to crack 50 points tonight. Joel Embiid is the second best projected center tonight, and he doesn’t even have a 78% chance of playing (yes I’m bitter).
Pivot
LeBron James, SF/PF, $11200, pOwn: 4%, Target Rate: 8%, Value Rate: 38% - LeBron has hit 60 FD points three games in a row, including one with AD. If AD sits, I imagine that this pOwn goes way up, as it should, and Jokic becomes even more smashy, as lineups with LeBron and Jokic will still be pretty far off optimal. If AD plays though, LeBron gives us a great leverage opportunity.
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG, $6200, pOwn: 46%, Target Rate: 34%, Value Rate: 58% - We should be used to this by now. Luka isn’t playing, likely because of the latest Dallas Mavs/Mark Cuban/Mavs Management palace drama piece published by ESPN, and Brunson’s opportunity/talent combination is undoubtedly underpriced. And, in a crazy twist I simply must report: As I was writing this paragraph, Mark Cuban appeared on my TV screen in an episode of Billions. Must be kismet.
Pivot
Gabe Vincent, PG, $4700, pOwn: 7%, Target Rate: 26%, Value Rate: 46% - There are a few different guys all with the same profile tonight: Brunson, Armoni Brooks, Cody Martin, and Gabe Vincent. Being a teammate of ultra-owned Kyle Lowry is keeping his pOwn in check, but he has just strong a chance at success as the others with Miami down 5 players tonight.
Kyle Lowry, PG, $7000, pOwn: 51%, Target Rate: 28%, Value Rate: 63% - This ownership is quite high for a game which could easily devolve into a lopsided blowout Philly’s way, but even if he only plays 30 minutes, there just aren’t enough guys available to Miami to create offense. If Embiid does sit, this play becomes much more attractive, and would consider the next guy a stack rather than a pivot.
Pivot
Seth Curry, PG/SG, $5300, pOwn: <1%, Target Rate: 6%, Value Rate: 24% - I know its thin, but if Philly blows Miami out, there’s a strong chance Seth had a bunch to do with it. If Embiid sits, he gets the double boost of more shots, and a higher chance of a competitive game.
DraftKings Favorites
Gabe Vincent, PG, $4500, pOwn: 9%, Target Rate: 32%, Value Rate: 61% - Here on DK, he gets top billing - I really want to put Jokic again, but damn that price tag is wild - as his fantasy scoring profile fits better. Like all active players for Miami, he will get about as many minutes as he, or we, could want.
Pivot
Max Strus, SG/SF, $3100, pOwn: 7%, Target Rate: 23%, Value Rate: 74% - Vincent’s teammate for Miami is min-priced, and has G/F eligibility. Max is one of only three guys available for Miami who has A - played NBA minutes before, and B - can like dribble and shoot. He is more like favorite 1B here.
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG, $6700, pOwn: 27%, Target Rate: 27%, Value Rate: 63% - See above. He’s a little pricier here, but still works for us!
Pivot
Dejounte Murray, PG, $10300, pOwn: 2%, Target Rate: 13%, Value Rate: 39% - The Spurs host the Charlotte Hornets tonight. This play will not only give you access to Dejounte’s big-time upside, but will require a vastly different roster construction than what most of the field will use with all the guard value available.
Larry Nance, PF/C, $4600, pOwn: 10%, Target Rate: 22%, Value Rate: 58% - Finding non-guards who can smash, and don’t cost 12K is tough tonight. Nance is the best of some poor options, but we need to fill the roster, and can only play so many Heat or Bucks players. Memphis has been playing a big team recently which could mean Nance steals some minutes from Covington tonight, enhancing his upside.
Pivot
Montrezl Harrell, C, $5100, pOwn:13%, Target Rate: 22%, Value Rate: 64% - I know his rates are more attractive, but he is kind of stuck minutes wise, capping his upside. Still, he can help us fill out a roster, and hope he smashes Team Shambles is 27 minutes.
Post-script: Khris Middleton is now doubtful to play, which make Jrue Holiday smash play numero uno on both sites. You should play him in all formats. Just be ready for the worst here.
Ok that’s all for today! Good luck tonight, and be sure to subscribe and share!