Bro! Its Tiers Tuesday!!!
Bro! Its Tiers Tuesday!!!
We have five games but its still Tiers Tuesday...
Happy Tuesday everyone. Last night was ok for the most part, except we didn’t have nearly enough of our boy Jonas Valanciunas, who did his best Steph Curry impression in the first half of the Clips/Pels game, going for 7 for 7 from three and blowing the slate open.
Domantas Sabonis also blew up, as we expected, with Myles Turner sitting out. Sabonis finished the game with a whopping 25 rebounds, and threw in 10 assists and 16 points to boot. Sadly (or not, idc) the Pacers still lost to the TWolves 100-98 as the team shot under 40% for the game.
In Miami Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin all had strong games. None were major slate breakers though; It’s instructive that the biggest winner last night on DK, to the tune of $100k, played Gabe Vincent, who scored fewer points than Strus and Martin, and was more expensive.
The key takeaway here for me is backups are backups for a reason. Great players can produce great results, regardless of context. Valanciunas was shooting 46% from 3 coming into the game - if we apply that percentage last night, he still scores 58 DK points. Nothing else about his performance was particularly outrageous, just a little bit of shooting luck and bam you have a slate breaking night. Don’t overly sweat the muddled value options that appear every night. Focus on finding the 1% owned players who can really change a slate if just a little bit extra goes right.
OK I know why your here - on to tiers.
Tier 1
This tier is straight forward from a projection standpoint. Harden, Durant, and Steph are the clear leaders, in floor, mean, and ceiling. But my mind is drawn to Russ as a guy who has as high a fantasy ceiling as anyone ever. I imagine that Steph will lead on ownership by quite a bit here as the only star flying solo in the top two tiers. The same psychology would lead us to see a split between Harden and Durant for second and third. That leaves us with Russell Westbrook, playing against Team Shambles, with the highest total on the slate. Heart eyes emoji.
Tier 2
Tier 2 won’t slice quite so easy I dare say. While Julius Randle is a fine player in a decent matchup against Brooklyn, he just doesn’t have the same juice as these other guys. Not to say he’s a total fade, but I’m particularly interested in Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard here. The pOwn you see here is not reflective of what I think will happen on tiers. Dame is a bunch cheaper than the Lakers guys on the main slate, but projected just the same. Looking into my crystal ball, I see Randle garnering a touch too much “contrarian” energy in stacks with the Nets guys in T1. Dame however famously started the season with a brutal stretch of shooting, recovered for several weeks, then posted back to back 20 somethings against perhaps the two best defenses in the league. He is facing Detroit tonight who are a bottom 10 defensive unit, with the Blazers sporting a healthy 112 total. As N*Sync once said, “Buy Buy Buy!”
Tier 3
Former Wichita State Shocker Fred VanVleet is the clear projections leader in T3, but I have interest in everyone else here as well, except Chris Paul, who we should expect to struggle quite a bit against a very stingy GSW defense. He might do ok, but for him to be the top player in this tier would be a 99.99 percentile outcome. Pass.
The other fellas are all interesting though. Fox is a great stack option for any of the Lakers players, but especially with Westbrook. Harrison Barnes is doubtful tonight, so there are a few extra possessions to pass around for Team Shambles. Siakam is a do everything guy, playing without OG Anunoby tonight, so a few extra rebounds are on offer, and his success is likely directly at the cost of FVV, making him excellent leverage on the (rightly) more popular Flying Dutchman.
Finally Devin Booker will likely be the focal point of the Suns offense tonight even more than usual. GSW doesn’t employ any elite on-ball wing defenders, but are strong defensively up and down the roster. Book’s ability to get a shot off in a variety of ways is one of the few paths for the Suns to find some joy.
Tier 4
This is an interesting tier, as we are faced with one player whose mean projection outstrips the others by about 15%, but whose ceiling is outstripped by two different players, both from the same Detroit team. The Pistons guys are both very intriguing to me. McCollum has the highest average FPPG, which players will see, and faced the 19th best “OPRK” which is DK app speak for quality of opponent. He is going to be really owned. Cade Cunningham and Jerami Grant though have ceiling that reflects the high variance nature of their team. Both guys could very well be the lead dog tonight, for a team that simply doesn’t have much shot creation. Someone has to shoot the ball, and these guys are more than willing. In fact that’s a big reason why Jerami Grant is even here. He wanted the opportunity to shoot to his heart’s content. Portland is poor defensively, regardless of metric. Lets get plenty of these two tonight.
Tier 5
It is Dillon Brooks SZN in Memphis right now! Not really, but Ja Morant is going to be out for a little while, and some new guys are going to have to take some shots. For your consideration I present Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. These are both two very flawed players, whose minutes we can’t even be sure of as they are two of the most foultastic players in the league. Proceed with caution here. These guys will be owned, but the range of outcomes are all over the place. If I have to choose, I’d rather be with JJJ as a huge guy who does everything against a team who does not employ anyone taller than 6’9”.
As mentioned above, Harrison Barnes is doubtful, meaning Haliburton and Hield should both be in line for their own boost, but starting from a much higher baseline of minutes and production. Same goes for Scottie Barnes with the absence of Anunoby.
I’d just be wary of correlation issues in this tier. Jordan Poole can’t get his points if Steph drops 50.
Tier 6
This tier is just for correlation plays. No Dame or CJ? Welcome to the team Nurk! No faith in Dillon or J^3? Desmond Bane can really shoot! Loved CJ too much? Saddiq Bey is here to help!
I think you can play Richaun Holmes with anyone else from the Lakers/Kings game in the main slate, but this tier has seven guys in decent spots. If he outscores the other guys in this tier, its either because they all didn’t quite win theirs (blocks/rebounds at the expense of the Lakers, points at the expense of other Kings), or the game went to 3 OTs and you better have a lineup chock full of Kings and Lakers.
The New York guys are all meh for me personally. Barrett is a perfectly average player, who will be anywhere between 2nd and 5th in FGA attempts for his team, and besides the occasional rebounding outburst, just doesn’t do much else. Burks’ game is a bit more varied, but a similar issue confronts him. Will he be second, or fifth to the trough?
I don’t trust LaMarcus Aldridge or Steve Nash. If he scores 50 tonight that’s fine.
Ok that’s all I have for today. As always be sure to check out the daily thread for updates throughout the day, and please feel free to drop a question or comment.
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